In 2025, domestic lithium carbonate experienced a rare destocking pattern, with the annual destocking volume reaching approximately 10,000-20,000 mt. 

According to SMM data, the average weekly production of domestic hot-rolled coil in December was 3.185 million 10kt, lower than the same period last year, down 2.7% MoM from November, mainly due to increased annual maintenance at domestic steel mills in December.

Indonesia's bauxite sector is entering 2026 with tightly controlled production volumes under the annual RKAB quota system, expected to remain at or below 2025's restricted 12–15 million tons—well under the industry's 25–30 million ton capacity—to align supply with downstream demand, curb oversupply, and support gradual domestic price recovery. Current prices in West Kalimantan hover at USD 28–32 per ton FOB, significantly below the official HPM benchmark of USD 42, due to structural oversupply, limited alumina refinery intake, and logistical constraints. Enhanced transparency and compliance via the SIMBARA digital platform are effectively eliminating illegal mining, while expanding refinery capacity is projected to lift annual bauxite demand toward 28–30 million tons by late 2026 or 2027. Combined with resilient global aluminum fundamentals, these factors are expected to drive domestic prices toward USD 32–36 per ton or higher in the second half of 2026 and into 2027, fostering improved profitability, industry consolidation favoring larger integrated players, and long-term market stability for compliant producers.

Indonesia's Nickel Ore Price Stable, Forestry Task Force Remains Active